Knowledge Base

On the night of March 14th, 2025, a devastating tornado outbreak affected parts of the mid south into the Midwest. This tornado outbreak ended up being the deadliest tornado outbreak of 2025 and one of the costliest on record. 42 fatalities, hundreds of injuries, and $6.25 billion in damages from this outbreak. Nearly every tornado that touched down became a significant tornado (EF2+) with several attaining EF3-EF4 status. Most of these tornadoes occurred after sunset, which likely contributed to the high fatality rate.

2 weeks before this deadly outbreak, there was little discussion about a possible impending tornado outbreak. The predictability of tornadoes at 2 weeks lead-time is up for debate and discussion in the meteorological community. The gold standard for severe weather prediction, the Storm Prediction Center, only offers tornado outlooks to 2 days into the future, with general 'severe thunderstorm' outlooks to 8 days into the future. With conventional methods, it simply is not possible. With StormNet, however, it is possible! 

StormNet, at 14 days prior to this outbreak, was already hinting at a possible high end tornado event across the mid-south.

Any probability above 1% is significant at these long ranges, so this would definitely be cause for concern at this range.

The morning of March 5th -- 10 days prior to a deadly, historic tornado outbreak. The SPC is still outside of their forecast window for severe thunderstorms. The NWS offices across the affected areas have no mention of possible severe storms or tornadoes in 10 days. StormNet, however, has been busy honing in on the specific affected area!

StormNet highlights a specific region: the mid south from Arkansas into Missouri, with lower (but present) probabilities from the deep south through the midwest. These probability levels at 10 days are quite rare, only occurring a few times each year!

There exists no tool or meteorological product (human or otherwise), as of Spring 2026, which predicts tornadoes at 10 days lead-time, besides StormNet. The goal is to provide the public, emergency managers, and meteorologists with advance notice of the impending threat. Awareness is key, and increasing lead-time and awareness is key to improving tornado-related public safety.

At 7 days before the outbreak, we are finally in SPC's forecast range for severe thunderstorms! Unfortunately, they did not highlight any region for possible severe storms, stating that predictability was too low to determine that severe storms will be possible. They note in their forecast discussion that future outlooks may outline specific regions, but that confidence is too low at forecast time to outline any regions.

StormNet's 7 day forecast was continuing to increase probabilities and honing in on a specific region. At this lead-time, StormNet was primarily honing in on northern Arkansas and southern Missouri -- a bit offset to the west of where tornadoes actually occurred, but correct on the general region affected.

Probabilities this high are exceptionally rare, and only occur a handful of times in a year!

We arrive to March 9th, and the SPC has now issued a day 6 'slight' 15% risk of severe storms across a huge swath of the country, stating in their outlook that "this overall pattern will be very favorable for a regional severe weather episode from late Friday afternoon into early Day 6/Sat morning."

StormNet's 6-day tornado forecasts continue to try to hone in on where the tornadoes will occur, now with a high >50% probability centered from northern Arkansas through southeast Missouri.

Probabilities of >50% at a 6-day lead-time are very rare! According to our climatological analysis, these levels are only exceeded a few times per year. We consistently see 'very rare' levels reached by StormNet in the period leading up to this outbreak, indicating that it could be an upper-echelon event.

5 days before the deadly outbreak on March 14th, and the SPC has now issued an 'enhanced' 30% risk for severe thunderstorms for the outbreak day. Their outlook primarily focuses on eastern Arkansas, Southeast Missouri, and the Mississippi delta region.

They state in their outlook that "this overall pattern appears favorable for both supercells and an eventual QLCS.". 

StormNet's 5 day tornado forecast probabilities continue to focus and refine on the areas of Southeastern Missouri, with lower probabilities extending from the deep south through the midwest.

At 4 days prior to this deadly outbreak, both the SPC and StormNet were calling for a significant tornado outbreak.

The SPC expanded their 'enhanced' 30% severe thunderstorm risk, stating in their outlook: "All severe thunderstorm hazards are expected, including widespread damaging winds, tornadoes (some strong), and large hail."

StormNet is similarly working to sniff out where the tornadoes may occur, with the probabilities now increasing and wobbling around some.

The highest StormNet probabilities are focused around the Mississippi River in southeast Missouri, with rarity remaining very high.

3 days before the historic tornado outbreak: StormNet and SPC continue sounding the alarm about an impending tornado outbreak. 

The SPC issues an enhanced risk (level 3/5) for severe thunderstorms (remember, no tornado-specific outlooks until 2 days out). In their outlook discussion, they describe that "a regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley".

StormNet's tornado forecast 3 days out is quite a bit more bullish, with high tornado probabilities extending from northern Arkansas into southeast Missouri, and through Illinois. 

Notice the difference between SPC and StormNet here. SPC is quite a bit further east, highlighting much of western TN, KY, MS, and even NW AL. StormNet specifically focuses on Northern AR, SE MO, and IL.

The 'rarity' in the StormNet tornado forecast remains very high, with recurrence only expected a handful of times per year.

Now, within 48 hours of the outbreak, SPC issues its 'first call' tornado forecast. They issue a 10% (enhanced, level 3/5) risk of tornadoes for much of the deep south through the mid-south. 

StormNet's day 2 forecast was far more bullish, with rare >60% tornado threat probabilities in a corridor from southeast Missouri through western Illinois.